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Published On: Mon, May 15th, 2023

CEPRASS Survey Predicts Mayor Bensouda For Likely Victory Against Opponents

According to a recently conducted survey of the Center for Policy, Research and Strategy Studies (CepRass) on elections opinion polls ahead of the Mayoral and Chairmanship Local Government Elections, revealed that the person likely to win in Kanifing Municipal Council mayoral elections is the United Democratic Party candidate Mayor Talib Ahmed Bensouda who held a commanding 55% of the survey.

Announcing the outcome of the polls, Lamin Dampha, head of the pollsters, CepRrass, told the press over the weekend that the survey was conducted recently.

The opinion poll findings by Mustapha Jobarteh said the race is not without uncertainties, as a considerable 24% of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for potential shifts in support. 

“The intention to vote is led by UDP’s Bensouda half of the respondents (50%), followed by NPP’s Bakary Badjie with 28 percentage points between the two. Only 27% of respondents in Kanifing are not decided or secretive with their decision, which is the lowest across all regions.

“ Challenging the UDP’s dominance in Kanifing is the National Progressive Party (NPP) candidate, Bakary Y. Badjie with 19% of the support, Badjie and the NPP are positioned as formidable contenders, seeking to break the UDP’s hold on the municipality. Hence, our predictive outcome.” He said.

Intention to vote and likely to win, according to him, in Mansakonko, the UDP’s Landing Sanneh leads on intention to vote at 32%, followed by NPP’s Kebba Dem at 28%. However, he added that two-thirds of the respondents (40%) in Mansakonko are either not decided or are secretive about their intention to vote.

He said taking center stage in the opinion polls race is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Landing B. Sanneh with 39% support. However, the battle for Mansakonko Area Council is far from one-sided and the situation remains fluid, with a significant percentage of respondents, 35%, unable to determine the likely winner.

Jobarteh noted that the NPP’s candidate follows Landing Sanneh close at 28%. However, the large number of undecided (secret) voters means that they cannot predict the outcome of the election.

He further stated that intention to vote and likely to win that on the intention to vote in Brikama, nearly half (48%) of the respondents are either undecided or prefer to keep their intentions secret. Of the remaining, NPP’s Seedy Ceesay leads the rest (21%) followed by UDP’s Yankuba Darboe (19%).

He added that the “ independent candidates each do not pull more than 5% on the likely to win, 42% of respondents are unable to determine the likely winner but some candidates have emerged as strong contenders in the race. The United Democratic Party (UDP)’s candidate, Yankuba Darboe, currently holds a considerable level of support at 23%. Challenging the UDP’s dominance is the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate, Seedy Sheriff Ceesay, who has garnered 22% support.”

He outlined that, with the results for the intention to vote and likely to win contradicting, as well as a high proportion of undecided and secret voters, they cannot conclude on the likely winner in Brikama.

He further revealed  that, in this survey, potential voters were asked about what they think of the purpose of establishing the Commission of Inquiry on Local Councils, and results indicate that the majority (58%) of the respondents think it is for transparency and accountability, 41% said it is a witch-hunt, while 31% believed it is for corruption. 

Jobarteh said respondents were asked about vote buying, the survey findings show that 46% of the respondents reported ‘yes’ vote buying is taking place, while 41 said ‘no’ and 13% stated they have no idea about the issue.

The survey also covered issues surrounding local government matters such as the ongoing commission of enquiry, vote buying and the treatment of candidates by the IEC.

The Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies (CepRass) has just completed this opinion poll survey for the forthcoming Mayoral and Chairmanship elections in The Gambia.

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